The University of Connecticut / Hartford Courant Poll

STORRS, Conn. – President Barack Obama’s proposal Tuesday to combine spending cuts and tax reforms to avoid sharp budget reductions scheduled to take effect next month may find a receptive audience among Americans who were already looking for such measures before the president’s announcement, according to a new University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant poll.

The survey found that 49 percent of Americans want to the government to reduce the federal deficit with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, while 40 percent want to see the matter addressed by spending cuts alone. Just 3 percent of those surveyed support reducing the deficit by raising taxes on all households.

Among the 49 percent who want combined measures to reduce the deficit, spending cuts are the most popular option, the poll found. Nearly half said the combination should be mostly spending cuts, while about 29 percent said mostly tax increases. Nearly one-quarter of the respondents are uncertain as to the exact mix of the deficit reduction package.

Democrats are more likely to support a combination of cuts and tax hikes than Republicans. Just 30 percent of Republicans support a mixture, compared to 69 percent of Democrats.

Regionally, support for a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts was above 50 percent everywhere except the South, where 41 percent support it. By comparison, 48 percent of Southerners say they want the deficit reduced by spending cuts alone.

“Spending cuts are definitely the preferred option for addressing the deficit, but nearly 50 percent of the country thinks they won’t do the job alone,” says UConn Poll Director Jennifer Necci Dineen, a faculty member in the Department of Public Policy.

The findings are based on The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll. The national sample of 1,002 randomly selected adults was interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between Jan. 22 and Jan. 28, 2013.
The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points for the entire sample, and larger for subgroups.

The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers, land and cellular, at which adults in the household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual adult being selected. The data have also been weighted by the sex, race and level of education of the respondent based on the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census.

The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll is a joint effort between one of the nation’s top research universities and the oldest continuously published newspaper in America. The poll’s purpose is to provide unbiased opinion research into critical questions affecting both the state of Connecticut and the nation.

Download the polling data (PDF).

STORRS, Conn. – Nearly two-thirds of Connecticut residents support stricter gun regulations, with larger majorities favoring specific measures like background checks on all gun sales and policies to prevent people with mental illness from buying guns, according to a poll released Thursday by The University of Connecticut and the Hartford Courant.

The survey shows that 64 percent of state residents say they favor more stringent gun laws, with support particularly strong among women, Democrats, and residents 65 or older.

That’s notably higher than the percentage of U.S. residents who favor stricter gun laws, which stands at roughly 50 percent, according to a national UConn/Courant survey released on the same day as the state poll.

One of the key factors for Connecticut residents is the Dec. 14, 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook School in Newtown, the poll found. Fifty-seven percent of Connecticut residents said the killings made them more likely to support gun control than before, compared to 44 percent nationally.

When it comes to specific proposals on guns, majorities exist both nationally and in Connecticut, but in Connecticut the support is notably greater:

• 90 percent of Connecticut residents support background checks before gun purchases at gun shows
• 87 percent support a law preventing people with mental illness from buying guns
• 73 percent support a federal database to track gun sale
• 68 percent support a renewed ban on assault-style weapons like the one used in the Sandy Hook massacre
• 64 percent support a ban on ammunition clips that can hold more than 10 rounds.

On school safety, though, there’s less consensus both in Connecticut and nationally. When asked to rate the effectiveness of several measures to promote school safety that have been discussed in recent weeks, Connecticut residents were more divided than on the question of gun control:

• 51 percent think restricting public access to school buildings during the day would be very effective at reducing violence
• 42 percent think increasing police presence at schools would be very effective
• 36 percent think making physical changes to school buildings, like bulletproof glass, would be very effective
• 12 percent think arming teachers or other school officials would be very effective

These findings are based on The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll.  The national sample of 1,002 randomly selected adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between Jan. 22 and Jan. 28, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points for the entire sample, and larger for subgroups. The Connecticut sample of 511 randomly selected adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between Jan. 24 and Jan. 28, 2013. The margin of sampling error for the Connecticut survey is +/- 4 percentage points for the entire sample, and larger for subgroups.

Download the Connecticut polling data (PDF).

Download the national polling data (PDF).

After three debates and countless campaign ads, the U.S. Senate race in Connecticut remains close, but Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy has a narrow lead over Republican Linda McMahon, according to data from The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant  poll released Thursday.

The poll found that 44 percent of likely voters say they support Murphy, compared to 38 percent backing McMahon, with 17 percent undecided. More voters have gotten a chance to see the two candidates, with three of the race’s four debates having taken place, along with a blizzard of political advertising.

“The debates have helped people make up their minds, but it’s been hard for voters to find out more than just what the candidates don’t like about each other,” said UConn Poll Director Jennifer Necci Dineen, a faculty member in the College of Liberal Arts and Science’s Department of Public Policy.

Murphy’s narrow lead is buoyed by his growing edge among women voters, with 50 percent saying they support him and 32 percent backing McMahon. Murphy’s lead is even more significant among college educated women, where he holds a 55 to 28 percent edge.

“When we polled on this race last month, there wasn’t much of a gender gap,” Dineen said. “The campaigns have included more of a focus on issues that are typically important to women voters, though, and that seems to be helping Murphy.”

McMahon has a notable lead among men, however, leading Murphy 45 to 37 percent among male voters. She also leads Murphy among men with college degrees, 48 to 40 percent.

Both candidates have favorability ratings that suggest the negative ads that have marked the campaign are taking their toll. McMahon is viewed favorably by 42 percent of voters and unfavorably by 39 percent, with 14 percent saying they haven’t heard enough to say how they view her.

Murphy fares slightly better, but is still a question mark for many voters. While 40 percent view him favorably and 34 percent view him unfavorably, 20 percent of voters say they either haven’t heard enough about him.

Regionally, McMahon has opened a significant lead in the traditional Republican stronghold of Fairfield County, edging Murphy 45 to 37 percent. She also leads in eastern Connecticut, but in Hartford County and the central part of the state, Murphy has double-digit leads among voters.

One factor that could play a role in the election is the popularity of President Barack Obama in Connecticut. The poll found that Obama holds a 51 to 37 percent lead in the state over Republican Mitt Romney, and that half of all likely voters expect the Democrat to win, compared to 23 percent who expect the former Massachusetts governor to prevail.

“It’s going to be interesting to see whether the president has any coattails in Connecticut,” Dineen said. “Everyone expects him to win the state, but the size of the margin could have a ripple effect on the other races, including the Senate contest.”

These findings are based on The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll.  The sample of 574 randomly selected likely voters in Connecticut were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between Oct. 11 and Oct. 16, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points for the entire sample, and larger for subgroups.

The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers, land and cellular, at which adults in the household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual adult being selected.  The data have also been weighted by the sex, race and level of education of the respondent based on the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census.

The University of Connecticut-Hartford Courant Poll is a joint effort between one of the nation’s top research universities and the oldest continuously published newspaper in America. The poll’s purpose is to provide unbiased opinion research into critical questions affecting both the state of Connecticut and the nation.

Download the data (PDF).

While voters around the country report similar experiences with economic hardships like lost jobs and falling behind on mortgage payments, Democrats and Republicans differ significantly on their satisfaction with their overall well-being, The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll has found.

While 42 percent of likely voters say they’re worse off today than four years ago, and 35 percent say they’re better off, those perceptions differ sharply among those who identify with either major political party. Sixty-two percent of Democrats say they’re better off today; by comparison, 9 percent of Republicans feel the same way.

Party identification isn’t the only variable that shows disparities in how voters see their lives right now. The poll found that 78 percent of African-American likely voters say they’re better off today than four years ago, while only 26 percent of white voters said the same.

And while 45 percent of likely voters who attend religious services once a week or more say they’re worse off today, just 31 percent of voters who never attend religious services have the same impression.

The polling shows that on some measures of economic well-being, Democrats and Republicans are faring about the same. Eleven percent of both Democrats and Republicans reported losing a job in the last three years, and 6 percent of both groups said they’d fallen behind on mortgage payments or had homes lost to foreclosure.

Other measurements, while not identical, were also close: 13 percent of Democrats reported having an adult child living at home because of dire financial straits, compared to 15 percent of Republicans. Similarly, 10 percent of Democrats said they’d lost health insurance in the last three years compared to 14 percent of Republicans; and 18 percent of Democrats experienced a drop in wages, hours, or benefits at work, compared to 23 percent of Republicans.

“These are fascinating findings, and consistent with the divided nation we have:  Although their lives are affected in many of the same ways by the economic downturn, Democrats and Republicans interpret their experience differently,” says University of Connecticut Poll Director Jennifer Necci Dineen. “It is astounding that partisanship could so profoundly and differentially affect how people with very similar struggles view those struggles.”

Forty percent of Republicans also said they lost a significant portion of their savings in the stock market, double the percentage of Democrats who reported the same situation; and about 24 percent of Republicans said they’d had to sell something of value to make ends meet, compared to 13 percent of Democrats.

“There’s definitely a difference in some of the ways people are interpreting the lingering effects of the recession,” Dineen says. “But the biggest divergence doesn’t seem to be in people’s actual circumstances, but in the way they perceive how they’re doing right now.”

Part of that larger picture is that voters are looking to the government for help in jump-starting the economy. Among all likely voters, 64 percent want Washington to do more to foster job growth, while 29 percent want the market to recover on its own.

“Voters want the government to do more, but they don’t agree on what should be done,” Dineen says. “Twenty three percent of voters want the government to cut taxes on businesses, while the same percentage wants to see taxes raised on some businesses. The bottom line for voters seems to be that Washington isn’t doing enough.”

These findings are based on The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll.  The sample of 1,186 randomly selected likely voters across the country were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between Sept. 11 and Sept. 18, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points for the entire sample, and larger for subgroups.

The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers, land and cellular, at which adults in the household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual adult being selected.  The data have also been weighted by the sex, race and level of education of the respondent based on the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census.

The University of Connecticut-Hartford Courant Poll is a joint effort between one of the nation’s top research universities and the oldest continuously published newspaper in America. The poll’s purpose is to provide unbiased opinion research into critical questions affecting both the state of Connecticut and the nation.

Download the data (PDF).

STORRS, Conn. – Neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage in the presidential race, and with a small number of undecided voters left to convince, turnout will be more critical than ever in pivotal states, according to a Thursday release by The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll.

Obama has a slim lead with support from 46 percent of voters, compared to the former Massachusetts governor’s 43 percent, the poll found. Just 8 percent of likely voters say they haven’t made up their minds. The findings suggest turnout will be critical in states like Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Colorado.

“One of the most interesting things about this race is that while it’s close, most voters expect Obama to win,” says UConn poll director Jennifer Necci Dineen, a faculty member in the university’s Department of Public Policy.

Fifty-two percent say Obama will win, while just 27 percent are confident that Romney will prevail. That perception can actually shape turnout, Dineen says.

“That’s the X factor for Obama right now,” she says. “If Democrats can convince voters that Obama’s re-election is inevitable, Republicans who are less enthusiastic about Romney are more likely to stay home on Election Day.”

Obama also significantly outperforms Romney on a number of questions about the candidates’ respective characteristics. By double-digit or near double-digit margins, voters find Obama more trustworthy, better for women and better for the middle class.

While the margin is smaller between the candidates, when asked about which candidate is running a more negative campaign, 37 percent of voters say Romney is running a more negative campaign, compared to 33 percent who say the same of Obama.

When it comes to the candidates’ running mates, voters are nearly as divided as they are about the top of the ticket. By a slim margin, voters say U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan would make a better president than Vice President Joe Biden, and more than half say the choice of a vice presidential running mate affects their overall vote a great deal.

The poll also found that Obama gets virtually no lift in the election from one of his administration’s signature accomplishments: the killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Eighty percent of voters say the terrorist mastermind’s death plays no role in their Election Day decision-making.

But voters give a strong boost to the notion that the federal government should be doing more to aid economic recovery. Sixty-four percent say national leaders should help create jobs, while 29 percent say the market should be left to recover on its own.

“That could be a problem for the Romney campaign, especially if he’s seen as not offering enough in the way of specific policy proposals on the economy,” Dineen says.

The findings are based on The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll. It includes a sample of 1,186 randomly selected likely voters nationwide who were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between Sept. 11 and Sept. 18, 2012. The survey’s margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.

The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers, land and cellular, at which adults in the household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual adult being selected.  The data have also been weighted by the sex, race and level of education of the respondent and the region of Connecticut based on the American Community Survey conducted by the US Census.

The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll is a joint effort between one of the nation’s top research universities and the oldest continuously published newspaper in America. The poll’s purpose is to provide unbiased opinion research into critical questions affecting both the state of Connecticut and the nation.

Download the data (PDF)

The U.S. Senate race in Connecticut, which could determine whether the Democratic Party holds onto its narrow majority in the chamber, is a statistical dead heat with just over six weeks to go until Election Day, according to The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant poll released Wednesday.

The poll of likely voters gives Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy a slight edge with 37 percent of the vote compared to Republican candidate Linda McMahon’s 33 percent. But since the margin falls within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error, it’s essentially a tie, said UConn poll director Jennifer Dineen.

“Right now, this is anyone’s race,” she said. “Both candidates need to focus on that large number of undecided voters if they want to open up a lead going into the home stretch.”

The live-caller poll of 517 likely voters was conducted Sept. 11-Sept. 16, 2012 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Both land lines and cell phones were included in the sample.

Forty-eight percent of unaffiliated voters are still undecided, leaving that crucial vote largely up for grabs.

“It’s good news for McMahon that she’s winning over independents at that rate, but both campaigns should see it as an opportunity that one in two unaffiliated voters is still on the fence,” Dineen said.

The Murphy campaign can take some encouragement in the fact that the relatively large number of undecided Democratic voters gives him a chance to bolster his overall numbers. While just 17 percent of Republicans remain undecided, 27 percent of Democrats have not made up their minds yet.

The high number of undecided voters comes despite months of television commercials blanketing the airwaves and thousands of mailers sent to homes across the state.

“The voters seem to be waiting for either candidate to give them a definitive reason for their support on Nov. 6,” Dineen said. “With less than 50 days to go, it looks like this election is going to be decided by which candidate does a better job of mobilizing those voters.”

Among the poll’s other findings:

• No gender gap exists between the candidates. Murphy and McMahon are roughly even with female voters, standing at 38 percent and 35 percent, respectively, of the vote.
• McMahon has a commanding lead among older voters, with nearly 49 percent of those 65 and older giving her their support compared to Murphy’s 34 percent. Murphy has a similar edge with voters aged 50 to 64.
• McMahon is doing well in eastern Connecticut and Murphy is out in front in Hartford County, but the race is a dead heat in western Connecticut.

These findings are based on the University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll.  The sample of 517 randomly selected Connecticut likely voters were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 11 and September 16, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points.

The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers, land and cellular, at which adults in the household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual adult being selected.  The data have also been weighted by the sex, race and level of education of the respondent and the region of Connecticut based on the American Community Survey conducted by the US Census.

The University of Connecticut-Hartford Courant Poll is a joint effort between one of the nation’s top research universities and the oldest continuously published newspaper in America. The purpose of the poll is to provide unbiased opinion research into critical questions affecting both the state of Connecticut and the nation.

Download the data (PDF)